My friend, Ong Kian Ming, at a forum a couple of days ago, proffered a view that BN will win the 13th GE, albeit without restoring its 2/3 majority in Parliament.
Kian Ming reckons that there will not be such a tsunami of such proportions as will sweep BN out of Putrajaya.
You can read the rest of what he said, as reported in Malaysiakini, HERE.
Is Kian Ming spot on, or way off the mark?
Before I give my 2 sen worth on this poser, let’s take stock of where we are now.
We have 222 parliamentary seats.
Immediately after the 12th GE, the divide was 140 seats to BN, and 82 to opposition.
With 6 PKR members declaring themselves independent but, by their actions, decidedly BN-friendly, together with Ibrahim Ali, the divide now is BN still 140, opposition 75 and 7 BN-friendly independent MPs.
That’s where we are now.
We’ve done our homework, and identified the vulnerable BN seats that can be taken and the vulnerable opposition seats that need to be defended.
In Malaya, Sabah and Sarawak.
For obvious reasons, I’m not going to detail those seats I’ve just mentioned.
Suffice to say that, if we can prise those vulnerable seats away from BN, and successfully defend the existing opposition seats, we should take Putrajaya with a total of 141 seats.
Now, I want to clarify here that by ‘we’, I do not mean Pakatan Rakyat.
I mean the 3 Pakatan parties, working cohesively with the many other non-BN parties in Malaya, Sabah and Sarawak.
And us, the rakyat.
Lets be very, very clear about this.
Pakatan Rakyat cannot and will not be able to bring BN to its knees by itself.
Its going to require the combined force of all these parties working towards 1 goal : ABU.
And that will require them to bury party egos, adopt a give and take attitude and work it so that we offer only 1 candidate in every constituency.
Never mind that BN will try to crowd the contest with their own planted independent candidates.
Now, am I therefore saying that Kian Ming has erred in his assessment?
Well, yes and no.
Let’s look again at Kian Ming’s rationale.
He reckons that there will be only localised tsunamis in Johor, Sabah and Sarawak.
This is where I differ with him.
In Malaya, the task before us is to take the ABU message into the Malay heartlands.
Do this effectively, and I am confident that we will witness mini tsunamis in many of the other states as well.
Enough to see a new regime in Putrajaya post the 13th GE?
Yes, but only if we can contain the wholesale cheating and fraud that BN will inflict upon us.
And without the reforms that we have demanded on 709 being first implemented before we go to the polls, containing the cheating is going to be near impossible.
Malaysiakini yesterday reported Anwar as disclosing that “Pakatan had detected an unusual surge of voters since the last general election in certain Parliamentary constituencies won by its component parties” .
Subang (PKR), up 35 percent from 84,000 to 114,000.
Kota Raja (PAS), up 29.5 percent.
Puchong (DAP), up 25 percent.
Last week, I was informed of another semi-rural Pakatan constituency where the number of registered voters has increased by 22 percent, bucking the rural to urban migration trend.
Mimos cleaning up the electoral roll?
Hundreds of thousands of voters overseas, as well as Sabahans and Sarawakians working in Malaya, all clearly disenchanted with BN, will be disenfranchised by the refusal to recognise them as absent voters and thus entitled to vote by post.
Yes, we’ve done our homework on how to take the vulnerable BN seats and defend the existing opposition seats.
Kian Ming’s spot on, though, if we don’t stop BN cheating.
My 2 sen.
chris
February 14, 2012
i belief PAS and DAP can control their egos. PKR with the likes of anwar and azmin, i doubt it
husain
February 14, 2012
I agree that the sudden surge in voters in pr areas . This is so because a lot of indons were given citzenship and are renting houses/or ocuppying houses that belong to cronies, where there are at least 10 people to a house and is like the sleeper cells.They will awake and vote ,to pr’s loss.
In the gombak areas ,one could see the new “neighbours’ going about silently.
Richard
February 14, 2012
Bro, totally agree that the message needs to be taken to the Malay heartland. Also into the interiors of Sabah n Sarawak.
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
agree with u too. so what r u going to DO about it?
or r u just typing comments here to kill time and then forget about it?
u think just by talking everything will be ok?
have u ever done anything else except bitching about it over teh tarik (u’d call it as spreading the message…. but please lah….)?
what do u want to do about the suddent increase in voters in selangor? not your opinion. i mean, what do u intend to DO about it?
AH174
February 14, 2012
fully agreed.What are we doing to do about it/have anything been done except bitching about cheating??
ACR
February 14, 2012
Devise ways in which the ordinary folk throughout the country who feel strongly in favor of a change in government can assist ABU in whatever way they can and then carefully screen the volunteers who come forward. Accepted volunteers will require briefing and some training. This can perhaps be part-provided by the opposition parties. It requires a massive effort on the part of the raayat and the close cooperation of all concerned to overcome the abuses of UMNO/BN. Time is short and the effort has to be herculean. Good luck.
Bobby
February 14, 2012
I’m Puchong, even with the influx of phantom voters, I can safely say that Gobind will retain the seat easily.
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
what about sekinchan state seat? what do u know about the winning margins in sekichan during ge12? and other slim-majority areas, particularly in selangor?
now read haris’s article again. u do the math.
what the f- do u know? u think gobind is safe and that makes it a guarantee to wrestle putrajaya from umno?
pathetic.
ctteo
February 14, 2012
I concur wholeheartedly!!
So what do we do, when the UMNOputras dissolve Parliament without fulfilling all the electoral reforms demanded by Bersih2.0!!
To go onto GE13 under such a scenario is to see the elections stolen from right under our noses!!
I have no answer but I sincerely hope Haris & the other more worldly wise civil society leaders have!!
Gerakan Sembilansatuenam
February 14, 2012
UMNO may have been manipulating things behind the scenes, without Pakatan and the Rakyat knowing it …
but UMNO has not quite changed since 308, and the fact that you cannot feel anger on the ground now does not mean the Rakyat is still not angry …
we are all just waiting for the moment to do Tsunami 2.0 …
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
u and who else? a few more friends? hv u offered to help out pakatan workers in seeking out all these sudden increase in voter-base in selangor as mentioned by haris?
u r pathetically stating the obvious. of course most of us will vote abu. but u dont know that alone is not enough, do u?
u r living in denial-land. u deserve noh omar’s dick up your ass. and a gang-bang by umnoputras and their hooligans.
perhaps u r just a student still thinking that pakatan can help u all. u go fly kite lah. u want pakatan to fight for you using limited funds? hv u contributed?
your income tax and other taxes u paid are being used by umno to influence sinisterly all govt machineries to work against pakatan. to buy pakatan reps.
umno will do anything to perpetuate their cling to lust and power. they will even sell their own daughters to the whorehouse, if they fail to sell yours first.
dont just talk like a schoolboy and always regurgitate the obvious.
do something. go out and seek out any pakatan reps and offices and functions near your place. attend. and ask what u can do for them (and for your country).
dont just type comments here and there and then pretend everything will be a-ok.
sputjam
February 14, 2012
The opposition will win next GE if RPK or somebody like him is at the helm. whether they are able to manage the country is another thing altogether.
Anwar should resign a opposition leader. he is a disgrace. We need a new dynamic and creative face as opposition leader. a person who is neutral in and race in the malaysian context. Maybe an eurasian, a baba/nyonya or a east malaysian bumiputra.
The malays have ruled for too long and its time we set a new vision, free from religious and racial doctrines.
AH174
February 14, 2012
Be realistic dude?? where are you from Pluto???
Ming
February 14, 2012
Still sleeping? RPK is now an attack-dog working overtime for Ajib Kor.
baronvonchesto
February 14, 2012
Haris… would it be possible to set up some sort of a fund to help friendly Malaysians abroad come home to vote? Some people might think its ridiculous though since most working people abroad earn much more than at home…
baronvonchesto,
Honestly, I very much doubt it.
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
no need waste money here. the returns on investment does not justify it.
go raid the kampungs. you bloody *********** dont be so snobbish lah. u think the kampung folks are pariahs and not worth your jaded attention is it?
well, then u lose them to umno’s loving arms. and umno get their votes while u all bloody ********** bitch about it over teh tarik or beer.
u want pakatan reps and workers to fight for you while u refuse to get to know them. these workers need to makan also. how much hv u donated? or hv u attended any pakatan functions to show support?
all talk, yes all of u.
i despise folks like u.
justicecrusader
February 14, 2012
Time to put the Country on the right track. Country before Self. Otherwise we ALL will become NOTHING with mass invasion of illegal immigrants takng over the country. Don’t agree. Look at former Selangor MB!
killer kit
February 14, 2012
You’ll probably want to get a KIT out, action steps the kampung people can take, list of actions, even before you get to them. List of issues to harp on and forums they can have on their own. Posters they can make on their own or whatever.
The devil is the EC. Even if both top heads are replaced, the EC is run by the gomen!
Remember Kota Samarahan in Sarawak State elections? Governance would have made PAS capture that seat!
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
YOU ALL SO-CALLED PAKATAN SUPPORTERS WHO WANT TO SEE ABU BECOME REALITY, PLEASE DO SOMETHING TO HELP LAH.
DONT JUST READ BLOGS AND DO NOTHING ELSE.
CHINESE SAYING “WATER UP TO EYEBROW LEVEL” WHEN ARE YOU GONNA WAKE UP.
DONATE A FEW RINGGIT LAH.
SEEK OUT PAKATAN REPS OFFICES AND FUNCTIONS, AND ATTENDLAH.
SUPPORT A BIT LAH.
UMNO HAS ALL GOVT MACHINERIES WORKING FOR THEM, UNFAIRLY. THESE GOVT MACHINERIES THOUGHT THEIR LOYATLY LIES WITH POLITICAL PARTIES, WHEN IT SHOULD BE WITH THE KING AND THE RAKYAT.
I HOPE THOSE OF U WHO JUST TALK AND DO NOTHING WILL GET TO EJNOY UMNO’S HOSPITALITY FOR ANOTHER 50 YEARS.
UMNO HAS ITS DICK UP YOURS, YOUR SONS AND YOUR DAUGHTERS’ ASSES AND YOU ALL SEEM SO COMFOTABLE WITH IT. ENJOY THE BUGGERY. UMNO-STYLE.
I DESPISE ALL OF YOU WHO JUST TALK AND WRITE COMMENTS AND DO ABSOFCUKINGLUTELY NOTHING ELSE.
4RAKYAT
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
haris
is there any way that your site can periodically list out all abu-related activities and functions that need attendance and support from the pakatan-friendly rakyat?
or funds that need to be raised?
pls publish them here and we’ll see these gung-ho folks here turn up or contribute. if they dont, please lah, have the decency to shut the f- up all of u.
turn around, pull down your pants and wait for umno’s big fat filthy dick up yours. ask your sons and daughters to do the same thing.
umno has fcuked up my country so far, i am not letting this pariah umno fcuk around with my childrens future.
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
250 fcuking million ringgit, just like that. but peanuts compared to bmf scandal or pkfz.
and this is just a near insignificant shahrizat. imagine najib’s share. daim’s share. mahathir’s share. all those 190 umno division heads (warlords). all these years right from the 1950s.
FCUK !
and u all here still pretend it’s nothing serious?
u dont have to be frontline. u have a job. u hv a family. politics is not in your blood. polis raja di malaysia is exactly that at the moment. most of us are afraid. ok, we understand. i hv a job too. a family to feed to. but u and i know the country is very very sick. umno is and has always been the sole culprit. without umno, the rest of these scenario gang will just die off automatically. mca mic gerakan ppp and that taib from sarawak.
there are now a viable adversary to umno. we know them are pakatan rakyat. and abu-friendly orgs. we stand a chance to kill this umno off. once and for all. at least we should maim it. no mercy should be shown to this ultimate malaysian devil. maim first, talk later.
do not let up. just contribute something. your anonymous ringgit or two. attend some pkr, dap or pas or other pakatan friendly ngo’s functions. these folks need to see for themselves too that u care. and they sure could use your little contribution to feed the pakatan soldiers.
308 started something good for malaysia. we nearly nailed it. so, let’s complete the job in ge13.
but u all gotta DO something. not just write comments and read blogs. it is not enough.
Allen Tan
February 14, 2012
1. Kian Ming is a christian, but sadly he believes his own intellect more than the miracle of God.
2. Parliament in March will pass PSC recommendations but those are superficial ones, so as to pacify Bersih 2.0. After you see the result, that most of the 8-point reform not met, what would you do?
3. BN surely will delay Bersih 2.0 requests. If those sudden surging of voters are phantoms, you must plan something to cause a decline in BN support. 709 was a good move that had cause the decline in Najib support. Thus subsequently he dared not to call for a poll till now. Another rally will push GE forward to Oct, Nov or Dec. The longer the poll to be held, greater the fatality for BN and more time for PR to enter S’wak and Sabah inland. I’m sure that these 2 states should be targeted by PR.
4. 13th GE, if BN were to win, it would be a simple majority. And BN win would be worse than 12th GE. By that time, some S’wak & Sabah parties of BN would be the king makers. They may switch to PR and wanted Anwar to give more benefits. What would you think if Anwar were to wrestle governance from BN in such a manner? Do you want to see such a new Government w/out the mandate of the voters?
bigjoe
February 14, 2012
OKM obviously expect UMNO-Perkasa/BN to get away with cheating. It really comes down to as you say opposition NOT shooting themselves AND being able to uncover the cheating. BUT that is the crux of the problem – the many parties involved in opposition – most of them don’t think the onus is on them to take up the pressures and challenge of UMNO-Perkasa/BN.
If the next election end up in our one-sided judiciary, we would be lucky..Sad isn’t it..
zik
February 14, 2012
Bro,
So how we going to this cheating before GE 13?
BERSIH 3.0???
zik
February 14, 2012
Bro,
So how we going to STOP this cheating before GE 13?
BERSIH 3.0???
bigjoe
February 14, 2012
Have suggestion. How about this battle cry – Lets send all UMNO/BN leader to work in KFC restaurants that can beat up customers..They are birds-of-same-feather..
shakuntala
February 14, 2012
One of the ways to show support for ABU is to wear the yellow t-shirt with the ABU slogan on it., whenever possible,…we must never forget that YELLOW was the colour that gave us the necessary courage to stand tall at Bersih 2.0
And yellow is this year’s favourite colour…..the year of the Dragon.
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
why not wear yellow underwear? this is kids’ play.
u wanna do something about it?
then walk bersih 3.0
then contribute some money. pakatan frontliners will fight umno. but they cant fight on empty stomachs.
or perhaps (no, i think) u r one of those who just talk gung-ho but do nothing else?
shakuntala
February 14, 2012
Don’t decry the rest of us MR. 4RAKYAT with your chosen uncourth language. We haven’t done much, I agree, but we certainly do not want UMNO to re-instate itself.
ABU has overtaken UMNO…….we are supporting ABU, quite honestly
By the way, one eff should have been good enough, no need to cough out so many effs. Are you forgetting that women also contribute to this blog.
I know you are angry, quite a lot of us are also, with this effing UMNO….and would dearly want to see it dethroned. When all is said, your suggestions, if it will please you to know, are taken, Mr, 4RAKYAT.
4RAKYAT
February 14, 2012
shakuntala
i) your 1st para reflects your pathetic status . “…we hvnt done much…. we certainly do not want umno to re-instate itself”. i dont care what u want/desire, i am interested in what u have done or will do about it. that is all. i say umno has its ( Censored ) and u r theorising it? if u “do not want” something, DO SOMETHING about it!
ii) your 2nd para – ” abu has overtaken umno ” ?? get real. umno has the entire govt machineries in its pocket. and count the sultans in too. pakatan is left only with concerned rakyat like us. fat hopes. with rakyat like u who just write comments and thinking u hv just uttered gems of an observation, is even more pathetic. if u r for abu, DO SOMETHING. dont just lament over the sad state of affairs. this is not classroom. this is not an exam. this is war.
iii) your 3rd para – dont u be a bloody sexist / chavinist here. so it’s alright to eff if it is directed at a guy?
iv) your last para – aiya, there;s no need to say u r angry. if u r angry about something or at somebody, u DO SOMETHING about it. u and i have not much in common. and it doesnt please me either way what u think. it pleases me to know WHAT U HAVE DONE!
shakuntala
February 15, 2012
Mr. 4RA’ayat do not assert yourself with commands. If we want to do, it is entirely up to us. Can you give me one good reason why we should listen to your “DOING”.
There comes a time in life when too much preaching done without tactic, loses itself and friends.
I ask you again to mind your unimportant and blatantly nasty language…..and why are you so angry, just to tell us that we are “doing” nothing?
Does it mean to say that you are doing a helluva lot, Mr 4Ra’ayat……with your grand sounding name.
Why not tell us what YOU have done for a change, for instance. This is a world of examples, I have to alert you. Or are you so shy and so modest?
If you are not a shining example lasHaris is,and I say that loud and clear, then you are not worth two cents.
UMNO is ooverpowering you MR, 4Rakyat, watch out, so I’d advice you to be less fearfull and more courageous,for a change…. MINUS YOUR FILTHY LANGUAGE! I’d also advice you to learn the basics of good manners.
4RAKYAT
February 15, 2012
shakuntala
again i try to answer in the order presented
i) not commands. if u r apolitical, i can tolerate u. but u wax lyrical here and there, u huff and u puff, and then u petered down, hidin away in your little apathy corner. u know what’s worse than being apolitical? it is bitching about it all the time, and yet DOING nothing e.g. money & effort. people like these only write and bitch. to show how much they care and how much they know. fact it, they do know but my foot they care. i am talking about the likes of u.
ii) u call this preaching? i am not preaching. i am scolding folks like u. so what is your tactic then? do u wanna conduct further analysis as to how to write more? just write and write and write? we have folks like haris and other bloggers doing the writing. i say u just remain anon like me and contribute money. if u dont hv money, help out in other ways. get your fat asses up and dig deep into your pockets.
iii) i’ll try to tone down a bit, but characters like u here keep on appearing here, of all places. u think the people’s parliament is a fcuking support group is it? where pitiful folks just come in and confess how much they hate this and that and sob. u think haris is a shrink? r u looking for a listener or r u here to contribute actively? u can remain anon like me. but hv u donated a single ringgit or attended a single pakatan friendly function?
iv) i’ve done my share i hope. i visit my local pakatan rep’s office every now and then. i offer to run errands. i chip in a ringgit or two every now and then. i volunteer. admittedly i am seldom in the frontline ( i am afraid of going into lock-ups; and i have children at home ) but i do my part. i’ve attended pakatan friendly functions whenever i can. i’ve been to haris’ sabm functions. the likes. i talk too. i am aware of the precarious position of some state seats in selangor e.g. sekinchan. i look it up a bit.
(ooh…. u have better things to do than all these, ya…?)
v) i dont want to like haris. haris has his role in abu. i hv mine. the problem is that u think u r like haris (write). we need more people to donate and participate even anonymously (volunteers). haris both writes and fights on the street. u r not even half of “write” and i think u r zero in “fight”. there. u see how pathetic folks like u r?
vi) umno overpowering me? i’d say u r somewhat correct here. i mean….. 250 mil. 12bil. beng hock. kugan. perak. bmf. penan. fucked up national institutions. race relations. the whole works. through the decades. all those billions. all those victims. they all point to one single overbearing source – united malays national organisation. i say KUBURKAN UMNO. then i can come out in the open.
u want clean language? go read reader’s digest.
shakuntala
February 15, 2012
Mr. 4Rakyat, am quite glad that you have stopped using foul language! It’s a waste of time and energy to go on and on with personal remarks. We do not even know each other, therefore, please refrain from presumptions.
Let us all focus on the essentials which is the struggle for a better and cleaner Malaysia.
Many thanks …the reader’s digest is too boring, too american and too conformist.for my taste Good luck to you, for the rest of the year.
.
4RAKYAT
February 16, 2012
let’s try to end this soon. again, response in the same order
i) u n me r anon. of cos v dunno each otr. typically, wat a sharp observation fr u.
ii) breaking up your 2nd para
– ” let us all focus on the essentials ” – what essentials u talkin bout? oh, u mean wat else to write and to talk and to bitch bout with your friends (to impress frens how up to date u r re current affairs, is that so?) i.e. all talk and no action type?
– “which is the struggle for a better and cleaner malaysia” – please lah shakuntala. who the fcuk r u kidding? u can impress some dumb opposite sex with your grand ideals but u still do nothing else. u want your 15mins of fame. u hv it already here in haris’ blog. satisfied now? so u can read and re-read your (and only your own) comments and perhaps see how many thumbs up u manage to accumulate? things like these give u satisfaction dont they?
iii) if luck is wat i aim for, i’d be like u – all talk and no action no contribution. so, no, good luck to u instead. and to your sons and daughters. i hope they’ll enjoy umno’s type of hospitality for the next 50 years.
i still can’t figure one thing out for folks like u. how come the likes of u can tahan umno’s filthy big fat dick up your ass for so long and still do nothing about it? i do my little part to try to pull umno’s dick out of my arse. i am still trying. i do my part and i dont mean mere talk. i give my time and my few ringgit.
i hope when folks like me who actually actively do something for the abu cause can save folks like u too. u r not evil. u r just pathetic. u hv my sympathy; not that u r asking for it.
finally, pls dont patronise me. dont do this. think about it, u dont hv to do this if u have actually done something for the cause. i think u havent. your contribution to the abu cause is zero. go play somewhere else. and dont pretend that u care. bcos u dont. and your sons and daughters will curse u, i think. and i hope so.